Chapter 6: Understanding Variance in Spin & Go

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We’ll simulate the bankroll of 100 good Spin & Go regulars playing at the €1 stake (with a CEV of 65 — which is very achievable at this level).

We’ll simulate sets of 200 games, then 1,000, and finally 10,000, to observe the impact of variance.

1. 100 players, each playing 200 games

Here’s the result:

This simulation gives us the following insights:

• 30% of players lost money after 200 games.
• The unluckiest 5% had losses of over 20 buy-ins, while the luckiest 5% achieved gains of over 40 buy-ins.
• On average (technically, the median), players made about 10 buy-ins in profit.

So, is 200 games enough to be sure you'll make money with a CEV of 65?

‍👉 NO.

2. 100 players, each playing 1,000 games

Here’s the result of this second simulation:

This time, the insights are:

• 10% of players still lost money — a small percentage, but still enough to cause serious doubt.
• The luckiest players earned over 120 buy-ins.
• The average gain was around 50 buy-ins.

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So, is 1,000 games enough to guarantee profit with a CEV of 65?

‍👉 NO.

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3. 100 players, each playing 10,000 games

Here’s the final simulation:

And the results are:

• All 100 players ended up profitable after 10,000 games.
• 90% of players landed between +238 and +718 buy-ins.
• Special shout-out to the poor player who was down 226 buy-ins after their first 2,000 games (that’s the pink curve at the bottom). Remember — this is a good player. He just ran bad.

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So, is 10,000 games enough to be sure you’ll make money with a CEV of 65?‍

👉 YES.

But note that there can still be huge gaps between theoretical and actual winnings, even among solid players.

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